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Construction output rose 5.4% in January

14 Mar 14 Latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics indicate that construction industry output in January 2014 increased by 1.8% on the previous month and by 5.4% compared to January 2013.

The three monthly data (November to January) show a rise of 3.5% when compared with the same three months a year before but a fall of 1.0% when compared with the previous three months (August to October). The fall in the three months November to January was due to a fall of 4.1% in November.

January 2014 saw all new work increase by a modest 0.8% (£50m) when compared with December. This was mainly due to a 2.1% (£40m) increase in new housing. The volume of new housing produced is now estimated to be at its highest level since 2010.

Repair & maintenance increased 3.5% (£120m) in January compared to December.

There were rises in all sub-sectors particularly in private new housing which increased 9.6% (£110m).

Estimated to be £5,900m, the output of new work remained 10.3% below its monthly peak of £6,600m recorded in June 2011.

The ONS has also produced estimates for new orders taken in the fourth quarter of 2013. It says that the seasonally adjusted volume of all new orders increased 1.5% between Q3 and Q4 2013 to £12.6bn. The increase in new orders is solely attributable to a 5.2% increase in orders for new housing. All other work, which is twice the size of new housing, fell by 0.4% during the same period.

The growth in orders for new housing is due to an increase of 7.2% in orders for private new housing, which has returned to growth after a 2.7% fall in Q3. Public new housing orders showed zero growth between Q3 and Q4.

Infrastructure orders fell back 22.2% in Q4 after the high volumes recorded in Q3.

When comparing Q4 2013 with Q4 2012, five of the six sub-sectors showed growth. During this period, all new housing orders increased by 31.9% (£1.0b) due to a 53.2% (£380m) increase in orders for public housing and an increase of 25.9% (£660m) in private housing.

Industry comment

Paul Connolly, cost management managing director at construction consultant Turner & Townsend, said: "The recovery is real - but dotted with caveats. Such mixed data neatly illustrate both the strengths and the weaknesses of the construction industry's progress.

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"The headline figures are impressive - with growth of 1.8% in January alone, total output is now half a billion pounds higher than it was at the same time last year. And the overall pipeline picture is rosy - new orders in the last quarter of 2013 were up 1.5% over the previous three months.

"But much of this growth is heavily focused on housebuilding. Outside the buoyant residential sector - which is up by a truly remarkable 35% in a year - things are much less encouraging. Infrastructure output sank by 2.3% in January - and is 3.2% down on the same time last year.

"The regional picture remains patchy too. The North/South divide continues, and outside London much of the growth is concentrated on the university and learning hubs, where lack of supply risks driving up input prices. Inward investment remains strong as foreign players continue to see the UK as an attractive market in which to place their money, and Britain's construction industry is steadily rolling out its latent capacity to meet growing demand.

"But while the boom in housebuilding says much about consumer confidence, the continued stagnation in infrastructure is a worry. The £100bn promised in last year's Spending Review won't begin to flow into UK infrastructure for another year. Construction has always been a barometer of economic sentiment, but at its best it can also drive truly broad-based economic growth.

"It's great that the industry is responding to the surging demand for homes; but until the funding environment for infrastructure projects improves, construction will struggle to fulfil its full potential as an engine of growth for the wider economy."

Dr Noble Francis, economics director at the Construction Products Association, said: “New orders are an early indicator of future output, so the 1.5% rise during the final quarter of 2013 suggests that the growth in activity is also likely to continue over the next 12-18 months.

“Private housing was the key driver of construction growth in January with sector output 23.3% higher than a year earlier.  New orders for private housing in Q4 rose 7.2% compared with Q3 and indicate growth for the sector in 2014 and 2015.  The Association forecasts that private housing starts will rise 16% this year and a further 10% in 2015. 

“Output in public non-housing, which primarily covers schools and hospitals work, has suffered greatly in recent years but looks set for a recovery.  Output in the sector fell 34% between 2010 and 2013.  In January, however, output was 2.2% higher than a year earlier and new orders in Q4 were 16.8% higher than in Q3, pointing towards sector growth this year.

“Despite many government announcements of finance for large infrastructure projects over the last two years, output in the infrastructure sector fell by 2.3% in January compared with December and was 3.2% lower than a year earlier.  Of greater concern, infrastructure new orders in Q4 were 22.2% lower than in Q3.  Therefore, it is vital that the government focuses on delivery of existing projects in the pipeline rather than further announcements.”

Scottish Building Federation managing director Vaughan Hart said: “It’s clearly very welcome news that the value of Scottish industry output rose by almost £1bn last year [a 10% rise]. Recovery in Scotland is being led by government investment in major infrastructure projects such as the Queensferry Crossing and significant growth in the private commercial sector. This is a very different recovery to that being experienced south of the border, where housebuilding has been the best-performing sector of the industry. The value of housing output in Scotland actually fell by £141m in 2013. Over the next year, I hope we will continue to see policies and investment priorities tailored to the particular needs of the Scottish industry. There is no sign of a housing bubble north of the border and stimulating recovery in the housing sector must continue to be a key government priority in Scotland.”

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