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Sat November 28 2020

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Construction's Q3 growth falls below forecasts

8 Nov 13 Construction output rose by 1.7% in the third quarter of 2013 on the back of 1.9% growth in the second quarter.

This is less than the 2.5% preliminary estimate previously used to calculate GDP figures, but is close enough to have no real impact on GDP growth. In Q3 2013 construction still contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show construction output growing for two consecutive quarters for the first time since Q2 2011. The 1.7% growth in Q3 is the highest Q3 growth since 2003.

New work showed growth of 3.1% in Q3, the highest quarterly growth since Q2 2010, but there was a 0.6% fall in repair and maintenance.

When comparing Q3 2013 with Q3 2012 construction output increased by 4.1% predominantly due to a 6.2% increase in new work.

Within the new work category, private new housing increased by 15.6% and private commercial other new work by 12.5%. Infrastructure fell by 3.7%.

In Q3 2013, these three sectors accounted for approximately 75% of all new work, with a combined volume of £13.1bn of the estimated £17.4bn output of new work in Q3.

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The main contribution to this growth comes from the new housing work, which shows year on year growth of 14.1%.

Comparing September 2013 with September 2012, the output of construction was up by 5.8%. Over the same period new housing showed growth of 13.6%.

Construction output fell by 0.9% in September when compared with August 2013 with all sectors, excluding public new work and private commercial other new work estimated to have fallen month on month.

The preliminary estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) published on 25 October 2013 contained a forecast for quarterly construction output of 2.5%. Revising this downwards by  0.8 percentage points to 1.7% has no effect on the preliminary estimate of GDP growth to one decimal place, ONS said, as construction accounts for only 6.3% of GDP.

The consistent growth in construction has led to 4.1% growth year-on-year compared to 1.9% for the services and -0.2% for manufacturing.

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