The ONS reported last month that construction output fell 4.7% in the first quarter of 2011, despite the previous quarter having been massively impacted by heavy snow across the country. This decline was blamed for overall GDP growth being just 0.5% in the first quarter.
At the time, a raft of industry organisations were happy to accept that finding as gospel, perhaps because it strengthened their case in lobbying government for special assistance. However, others - including the Construction Products Association - have been questioning just how true a picture the ONS presents.
The Financial Times reports today that bosses from Travis Perkins, Kier, Tarmac and McLaren Construction are all questioning the way that data is now collected. In 2010 the ONS switched methodology from new orders won to output volume.“For a while now we’ve been concerned about the reliability of the [ONS] numbers,” Travis Perkins chief executive Geoff Perkins said.
Last month Scottish Building Federation chief executive Michael Levack also expressed doubts about the validity of ONS numbers for construction. He was responding to publication of official statistics that reckoned the Scottish construction sector grew by more than 11% in 2010 compared to 2009. Mr Levack said: “I find it very hard to reconcile these latest GDP figures with the reality many construction firms are facing on the ground.”
The FT quoted ONS chief economist Joe Grice defending his methodology, saying he had no reason to believe the construction stats gave a distorted picture of the sector.
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