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Mon April 29 2024

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Official estimates suggest February rebound

13 Apr 23 The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that construction output rebounded in February 2023 to grow by 2.4% in volume terms.

Repair & maintenance led the way
Repair & maintenance led the way

February’s 2.4% growth follows a 1.7% fall in January 2023, making February’s £15,558m construction output the busiest month since current records began in 2010.

The increase in monthly construction output came from increases in both repair & maintenance (4.5%) and new work (1.1%).

ONS reported anecdotal evidence suggesting several reasons for the increase in February, including improved weather and continued strength across repair & maintenance sectors.

At the sector level, eight out of the nine sectors saw a rise in February 2023, with the biggest increases seen in private housing repair & maintenance, up 5.0%, and non-housing repair & maintenance, which increased by 3.7%.

Across the three months to February 2023, construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.9% over the previous three-month period. This is the sixth consecutive period of growth in the three-month-on-three-month series. The increase came solely from a 3.1% rise in repair & maintenance; new work was down 0.5%. Infrastructure new work was up 2.8% but private new housing was down 4.4%, according to the official estimates.

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While the UK construction output may have improved in February, other surveys suggest March was not so vibrant. The monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey last week reported a rebound in February was followed by a return to near-stagnation in March. [See our previous report here.]  ONS estimates lag a month behind, but include PMI data in the mix.

Clive Docwra, managing director of property and construction consultant McBains, said: “As January saw the weakest monthly growth since June 2022, the construction industry will welcome today’s figures, with the proviso that much of the increase in output during February reflects a bounce back from the disappointing previous month.

“The increase was also driven by repair and maintenance work rather than new orders, confirming that caution is still the watchword amongst many investors who are holding back on new projects.  There remains a mixed picture across work sectors - for example, new commercial housing projects saw a 4.4% fall, continuing the trend of not enough housing being built.

“Looking further ahead, the outlook for March may be less optimistic, given that it was the wettest for 40 years which will mean site work will have been impacted.

“Skills shortages are also still biting, and while the recent announcement by the government that bricklayers, roofers, carpenters and plasterers will be added to the Shortage Occupation List from this summer means the skills gap will be partially plugged, we would have liked to see additional professions such as electricians also added to the list.”

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